There are many highlights for conventional advert sellers in 2024, from the Paris Olympics to the presidential election. However main media company Magna International sees the WGA strike and different elements dragging down income over the following yr.
In an replace to its 2023 forecast issued immediately, Magna raised its general development outlook and highlighted the restoration of digital shopping for. However the conventional sector is more and more troubled, the report famous.
Whereas general advert spending re-accelerated within the second quarter, the report mentioned, digital media distributors in areas like search, social and video have been the primary beneficiaries, posting an 8.7% enhance within the quarter. Conventional media corporations reported a decline of 4.1%.
“The advert revenues of most conventional media house owners will proceed to stagnate or decline regardless of the continued development of their digital advert gross sales,” Magna mentioned of 2024. Nationwide TV, factoring out the election and different one-time boosts, might be down 3% and native TV will slip 5%. However these cyclical boosts might be important. Native TV advert income is predicted to develop by 28% in comparison with 2023, due to an incremental $5.7 billion generated by political demand together with spot inflation.
After which there’s Hollywood’s labor mess.
“The continued writers’ strike could result in a scarcity of recent enticing content material within the first half of 2024 and thus doubtlessly an additional acceleration in long-term viewing declines,” the report mentioned. Decrease rankings is not going to be balanced by value will increase, with the company predicting the bottom enhance in charges in 20 years. The outcome might be an almost 7% drop in linear advert gross sales subsequent yr, offset by an 11% upswing in AVOD together with the Paris Olympics. Magna pegs the full cross-platform nationwide TV advert revenues in 2024 at $46.4 billion, down a shade lower than 1% from 2023 ranges.