OPEC says China and the US will be mainly responsible for the increase in oil consumption this year
China and the USA are the countries that will most drive the increase in oil consumption for the rest of the year, said OPEC, which maintains the demand outlook and highlights the good progress of the economy.
“If growth in the main OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) and non-OECD economies maintains the dynamics of the first half of the year, economic growth for the year could improve even further”, states the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in the monthly report released this Tuesday.
The Vienna-based oil cartel expects the central banks of the United Kingdom, the euro zone and the United States to adopt “more accommodative monetary policies” in the second half of the year, although it notes that this will depend on developments is from inflation.
“Despite some negative risks, growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025 remain unchanged compared to the last assessment, at 2.8% and 2.9%, respectively”, says OPEC.
With this perspective, OPEC expects oil consumption to increase by 2.7% in the third quarter and 1.7% in the fourth quarter, compared to the same periods last year.
In year-on-year terms, the world will consume 104.5 million barrels per day of crude oil this year, 2.2% more than in 2023.
Demand in China is the fastest growing, closely followed by India.
The two Asian giants together will consume 22.56 million barrels per day this year, more than the United States and well above the 13.4 million in rich countries in Europe, where consumption will increase in 2024 and 2025 will be marginal.
Within the most developed economies, the USA leads the increase in consumption, with 0.9%, remaining the largest user of crude oil.
In general, developing economies record consumption increases much higher than those of OECD countries.
By sector, OPEC predicts that demand growth this year will be driven by road and air transport, as well as industry, construction and agricultural activity in non-OECD countries.
OPEC’s market share, led by Saudi Arabia, has been decreasing in recent years and is currently estimated at 27%.
The OPEC+ alliance, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, decided, on June 2, to extend until the end of 2025 the sharp cuts in its oil supply, equivalent to almost 6% of world crude demand, agreed since the end of 2022 with the aim of supporting oil prices.
